Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/334923 
Year of Publication: 
2026
Series/Report no.: 
GLO Discussion Paper No. 1706
Publisher: 
Global Labor Organization (GLO), Essen
Abstract: 
China's One-Child Policy (OCP) restricted most couples to a single birth, leading to a rapid increase in the prevalence of only children. Using longitudinal data and a regression discontinuity design around the policy's start, we estimate the effects on grandchildren's human capital. We find that children with only-child mothers perform significantly better in cognitive skills (0.71 SD) and noncognitive skills (0.50 SD) than comparable peers. The effects are larger for boys, consistent with son preference, and for those with less-educated grandparents, for whom quantity-quality trade-offs are more applicable. Additionally, we find that only-child parents have higher educational attainment and provide more favorable home environments, which may explain their children's advantages in human capital outcomes. These findings suggest that, in the presence of quantity-quality trade-offs, fertility restrictions can improve human capital across multiple generations.
Subjects: 
One-Child Policy
Child development
Cognitive and noncognitive skills
Intergenerational transmission
JEL: 
J13
J24
I2
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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