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Erscheinungsjahr: 
2024
Quellenangabe: 
[Journal:] Scientific Papers of the University of Pardubice, Series D: Faculty of Economics and Administration [ISSN:] 1804-8048 [Volume:] 32 [Issue:] 3 [Article No.:] 2110 [Year:] 2024 [Pages:] 1-17
Verlag: 
University of Pardubice, Pardubice
Zusammenfassung: 
Many prior studies on the government-growth nexus have focused on Keynesian (Keynes, 1936) or neoclassical (Lucas, 1990) traditions, while a recent research strand has paid widespread attention to Barro (1990)'s non-linear perspective. Although modern complexity sciences suggest an overall non-linear trend in a complicated, interconnected, globalized world, non-monotonicity is poorly addressed in the applied literature. This work explores both the linear and non-linear effects of government size on economic growth. By employing a hybrid Metropolis-Hastings algorithm within a hierarchical Bayesian approach to a panel of ASEAN countries over 1950-2019, which aids in handling statistical complexities, the results show a negative growth impact of government size. This finding aligns with the neoclassical viewpoint on bureaucratic inefficiencies and the distortionary effects of government intervention in a market economy. Substantial measures are needed to increase public spending efficiency and accountability, focus on productive investments, encourage private sector activities, and implement structural reforms in ASEAN.
Schlagwörter: 
Monte-Carlo algorithm
Bayesian hierarchical approach
Multicollineartity
Government-growth
Negative linear effect
ASEAN
JEL: 
E62
O40
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