Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/334647 
Year of Publication: 
2025
Series/Report no.: 
CESifo Working Paper No. 12291
Publisher: 
Munich Society for the Promotion of Economic Research - CESifo GmbH, Munich
Abstract: 
Using a large German firm survey, I randomize information on documented AI productivity gains and industry adoption rates and track firms over time. Beliefs about AI's productivity potential rise significantly after the treatments across the prior distribution without reducing uncertainty. These treatment-induced belief shifts map into behavior: in firms where the respondent has high decision authority, AI adoption is more likely one year later. Information about competitor adoption has direct effects on actions: incumbent adopters cut prices, while not-yet adopters revise business expectations upward. Together, the results highlight the role of expectations, strategic considerations, and informational frictions in shaping technology diffusion and its macroeconomic impact.
Subjects: 
artificial intelligence
technological change
technology adoption
firm expectations
RCT
belief updating
price-setting
JEL: 
D22
D84
E22
E31
O33
Document Type: 
Working Paper
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