Bitte verwenden Sie diesen Link, um diese Publikation zu zitieren, oder auf sie als Internetquelle zu verweisen: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/334478 
Erscheinungsjahr: 
2025
Schriftenreihe/Nr.: 
IMFS Working Paper Series No. 226
Verlag: 
Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS), Frankfurt a. M.
Zusammenfassung: 
We investigate the relationship between parliamentary debates and public expenditure by mapping legislative speeches to fiscally relevant topics and examining their connection in both long-term trends and short-term adjustments. Our analysis draws on transcripts of federal legislative discussions and federal government spending data in Germany (1950-2020), classified into nine policy functions (e.g. Social Security, National Defence and Education). We apply a state-of-the-art natural language processing technique - a structural topic model - to match identified debate topics to corresponding spending functions. Using cointegration analysis and error-correction models, we find (i) significant long-term equilibria between parliamentary debates and corresponding fiscal expenditure and (ii) that in cases of short-term disequilibrium, adjustments occur through government expenditure; that is, parliamentary debates are weakly exogenous.
Schlagwörter: 
Fiscal expenditure
parliamentary debate
Bundestag
text analysis
structural topic model
error-correction model
JEL: 
E62
C32
D78
Dokumentart: 
Working Paper

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