Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/333934 
Year of Publication: 
2025
Series/Report no.: 
QUCEH Working Paper Series No. 25-10
Publisher: 
Queen's University Centre for Economic History (QUCEH), Belfast
Abstract: 
Speculation has long been thought to have significant economic effects, but it is difficult to measure, making it challenging to examine these effects empirically. In this paper we measure speculation in the UK since 1785 by using business and financial reporting in The Times newspaper. Our monthly speculation index reveals four distinct epochs of speculation in the UK. Epochs of high speculation coincide with higher stock market returns and higher economic growth, while low speculation periods coincide with high levels of government debt and financial repression. We find that low interest rates foment the development of higher speculation, and that eras of higher speculation are often followed by greater banking instability.
Subjects: 
speculation
commodity markets
stock market
financial repression
monetary conditions
banking stability
JEL: 
E44
E50
G10
N13
N14
N23
N24
Q02
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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