Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/333893 
Year of Publication: 
2025
Series/Report no.: 
Ruhr Economic Papers No. 1185
Publisher: 
RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Essen
Abstract: 
We study how artificial intelligence (AI) affects workers' earnings and employment stability, combining German job vacancy data with administrative records from 2017-2023. Identification comes from changes in workers' exposure to local AI skill demand over time, instrumented with national demand trends. We find no meaningful displacement or productivity effects on average, but notable skill heterogeneity: expert workers with deep domain knowledge gain while non-experts often lose, with returns shaped by occupational task structures. We also document AI-driven reinstatement effects toward analytic and interactive tasks that raise earnings. Overall, our results imply distributional concerns but also job-augmenting potential of early AI technologies.
Subjects: 
AI
Online Job Vacancies
Skill Demand
Worker-level Analysis
Employment
Earnings
Expertise
JEL: 
D22
J23
J24
J31
O33
Persistent Identifier of the first edition: 
ISBN: 
978-3-96973-370-7
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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