Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/333402 
Authors: 
Year of Publication: 
2025
Series/Report no.: 
CEPIE Working Paper No. 03/25
Publisher: 
Technische Universität Dresden, Center of Public and International Economics (CEPIE), Dresden
Abstract: 
This paper studies the long-run effects of non-strategic administrative failures on voter participation. I exploit a natural experiment from Berlin's 2021 elections, in which hundreds of precincts experienced ballot shortages, multi-hour queues, and unlawful polling closures. Using precinct-level administrative data and a stacked event study design, I show that precincts exposed to administrative failures in the 2021 Berlin election experienced a 1.8 percentage points (2.4\%) decline in turnout across three subsequent elections over the next four years. The drop is concentrated in in-person voting and only partially offset by increases in postal participation in subsequent elections. Effects are largest among young voters, welfare recipients, and residents with migration backgrounds. Survey evidence suggests two mechanisms: disrupted civic habit formation and short-term erosion of institutional trust.
Subjects: 
State Capacity
Voter Turnout
Voting Costs
Administrative Failure
JEL: 
D72
H11
H70
R50
Persistent Identifier of the first edition: 
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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