Bitte verwenden Sie diesen Link, um diese Publikation zu zitieren, oder auf sie als Internetquelle zu verweisen: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/331721 
Erscheinungsjahr: 
2025
Schriftenreihe/Nr.: 
IZA Discussion Papers No. 18157
Verlag: 
Institute of Labor Economics (IZA), Bonn
Zusammenfassung: 
This paper examines the impact of immigration on voting behaviour. Exploiting a unique natural experiment, we research parliamentary election results in Poland following the 2022 inflow of Ukrainian refugees. We exploit the variation in hosted refugees across Polish counties and utilise a shift-share instrument based on the past settlement of Ukrainian immigrants. We find increased support for far-right and right-wing (incumbent) political groups, at the expense of centre parties. There is important regional variation in this overall pattern. The more liberal areas in west Poland experienced political polarisation, with both far-right and left-wing parties gaining support. Furthermore, the rise in far-right support is particularly pronounced in rural counties, low wage counties, and those bordering Ukraine. The effects are driven by changing voter preferences, rather than election participation or natives' internal mobility, and are not rooted in adverse economic effects. Our findings show that exposure to refugees, even those with a similar background and favourable profile, can still be associated with natives' backlash.
Schlagwörter: 
Russia-Ukraine war
forced migration
refugee exposure
election results
JEL: 
D72
D74
J15
O15
Dokumentart: 
Working Paper

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