Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/331011 
Year of Publication: 
2022
Citation: 
[Journal:] Research in Globalization [ISSN:] 2590-051X [Volume:] 4 [Article No.:] 100082 [Year:] 2022 [Pages:] 1-9
Publisher: 
Elsevier, Amsterdam
Abstract: 
In this article, we examine the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the dynamics of contagion in the economic and financial spheres. The objective of the article is to confirm that the systemic nature of contagion risk is greater in extreme situations than in normal situations. Through this study we want to highlight the nature of contagion and the transmission of shocks in both the economic and financial spheres. Similarly, we have tried to measure the dynamics of contagion processes in normal situations and also those of crises. This work contributes to the current and recent debate on the risk of cross-border contagion and in particular in a health crisis. Using graph theory, information theory and Markov chains, we were able to verify that the systemic risk of contagion was significantly increased during the lockdown and that the commercial and financial dynamics changed during this period (between March 2020 and June 2020). Similarly, our results state that the extreme degree of contagion risk is predictable via Markov chains by pre-emptively using medium-voltage cycles that are precursors of systemic crises.
Subjects: 
Contagion
Systematic risk
COVID-19
Markov chain
Trade
Graph theory
Financial markets
JEL: 
F36
F65
B17
Persistent Identifier of the first edition: 
Creative Commons License: 
cc-by Logo
Document Type: 
Article

Files in This Item:
File
Size





Items in EconStor are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.