Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/330882 
Year of Publication: 
2025
Citation: 
[Journal:] European Actuarial Journal [ISSN:] 2190-9741 [Volume:] 15 [Issue:] 3 [Publisher:] Springer [Place:] Berlin, Heidelberg [Year:] 2025 [Pages:] 831-857
Publisher: 
Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg
Abstract: 
If a health insurance product has only few insured, its claims experience becomes very volatile and is therefore not reliable enough as the only source for repricing the product. Traditionally, a similar product with many insured is used as a reference. However, legislative changes and market forces have led to a fragmentation of products. As a result, such a reference product with many insured is often no longer available. Here we propose a statistical model that combines the data of several products with few insured to derive a common relative claim inflation as well as the expected claims of these products in the future, thus enabling stable pricing for these products. The model was designed so that the usual premium adjustment process is changed as little as possible, making it easy to use in practice.
Subjects: 
German health insurance
Pricing
Premium adjustment
Short term forecasting
Bayesian model
Persistent Identifier of the first edition: 
Creative Commons License: 
cc-by Logo
Document Type: 
Article
Document Version: 
Published Version

Files in This Item:
File
Size





Items in EconStor are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.