Abstract:
Africa's rising refugee numbers lead to integration increasingly being replaced by repatriation. Investigating the long-term effects of refugees on host areas is crucial for sustainable integration, as the population increase puts pressure on limited natural resources. While existing literature addresses the environmental impacts of refugees, behavioral models rarely focus on this issue. This study uses an Agent-Based Model to simulate interactions between refugees, hosts, and forest resources. The objective is to (1) quantify the impact of refugee settlements and host communities on forest resources, (2) assess the effects of varying refugee settlement sizes on sustainable forest utilization and food security, and (3) evaluate how labor cooperation influences deforestation. The model applies a 2018 dataset from a refugee hosting community in rural Zambia, including 277 households, and comprehensive supplemental secondary data. Results show that forest reduction is driven by the need for firewood and land for refugee settlements, significantly reducing the forest area. Revealed deforestation threatens sustainable forest ecosystems and impacts food security by diminishing access to wild fruits and edible insects, crucial to local diets. Cooperation between refugees and host communities in slash-and-burn farming temporarily boost food production, but accelerates forest reduction. This leads to long-term resource depletion and competition. Highlighted dynamics show that, if unmanaged, refugee influxes can exacerbate food insecurity in rural refugee settings. Agroforestry and policy interventions focusing on sustainable land use, property rights, and alternative energy sources are essential to balance refugee needs with forest preservation and food security in host communities.
