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dc.contributor.authorCalzadilla, Alvaroen_US
dc.contributor.authorRehdanz, Katrinen_US
dc.contributor.authorBetts, Richarden_US
dc.contributor.authorFalloon, Peteen_US
dc.contributor.authorWiltshire, Andyen_US
dc.contributor.authorTol, Richard S. J.en_US
dc.description.abstractBased on predicted changes in the magnitude and distribution of global precipitation, temperature and river flow under the IPCC SRES A1B and A2 scenarios, this study assesses the potential impacts of climate change and CO2 fertilization on global agriculture. The analysis uses the new version of the GTAP-W model, which distinguishes between rainfed and irrigated agriculture and implements water as an explicit factor of production for irrigated agriculture. Future climate change is likely to modify regional water endowments and soil moisture. As a consequence, the distribution of harvested land would change, modifying production and international trade patterns. The results suggest that a partial analysis of the main factors through which climate change will affect agricultural productivity lead to different outcomes. Our results show that global food production, welfare and GDP fall in the two time periods and SRES scenarios. Higher food prices are expected. Independently of the SRES scenario, expected losses in welfare are nmarked in the long term. They are larger under the SRES A2 scenario for the 2020s and under the SRES A1B scenario for the 2050s. The results show that countries are not only influenced by regional climate change, but also by climate-induced changes in competitiveness.en_US
dc.publisher|aUniversität Hamburg, Forschungsstelle Nachhaltige Umweltentwicklung |cHamburgen_US
dc.relation.ispartofseries|aWorking Paper FNU |x185en_US
dc.subject.keywordComputable General Equilibriumen_US
dc.subject.keywordClimate Changeen_US
dc.subject.keywordWater Resourcesen_US
dc.subject.keywordRiver Flowen_US
dc.titleClimate change impacts on global agricultureen_US
dc.typeWorking Paperen_US

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