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Autor:innen: 
Erscheinungsjahr: 
2021
Quellenangabe: 
[Journal:] Asian Journal of Shipping and Logistics (AJSL) [ISSN:] 2352-4871 [Volume:] 37 [Issue:] 3 [Year:] 2021 [Pages:] 239-244
Verlag: 
Elsevier, Amsterdam
Zusammenfassung: 
This paper fills the gap in the literature of applying an exponential smoothing model in the oil shipping market forecasting. The author refines the adaptive combined model with B-criterion based on Brown's model with modification by Trigg and Leach. Forecasting the values of the average time-charter equivalent of a tanker along 6 different routes of oil transportation in the world ocean during the crisis period 2015-2019. The accuracy of the proposed method is superior to naive, autoregression methods and machine learning models in all used error metrics. The obtained accuracy in 71% of cases is available for commercial use by operators and charterers of the tanker fleet.
Schlagwörter: 
Oil
Tanker
Time-charter
Forecasting
Exponential smoothing
Adaptive combined model
Brown
Trigg
Leach
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