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Erscheinungsjahr: 
2025
Schriftenreihe/Nr.: 
CESifo Working Paper No. 12057
Verlag: 
Munich Society for the Promotion of Economic Research - CESifo GmbH, Munich
Zusammenfassung: 
The transition to a low-carbon economy requires a contraction of fossil fuel sectors, raising questions about the labor market costs of reallocation. We study the 2014 oil price shock as a natural experiment to examine the contraction of Norway's oil industry. Using matched employer–employee data, we estimate long-run effects on earnings and employment using two complementary approaches. A difference-in-differences design shows moderate losses for all oil workers, while an event study reveals substantially larger and more persistent losses among displaced workers–up to 10% in earnings and 5% in employment nine years after displacement, especially for those with lower educational attainment. Although few displaced workers transition into green jobs, they are equally likely to enter green and brown (non-oil) sectors when accounting for the size of each destination sector. Earnings losses are larger for those entering green jobs rather than brown (non-oil) jobs, but smaller than for those entering other sectors. Decomposition results indicate that differences in establishment wage premiums–rather than skill mismatch–explain most of the observed gaps.
Schlagwörter: 
green transition
oil industry
job displacement
distributional effects
establishment wage premium
skills mismatch
JEL: 
Q32
Q52
J24
J63
Dokumentart: 
Working Paper
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