Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/325836 
Year of Publication: 
2025
Series/Report no.: 
IWH Discussion Papers No. 15/2025
Publisher: 
Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), Halle (Saale)
Abstract: 
Vietnam, a lower-middle-income economy, faces severe climate risks from heat waves, sea-level rise, and tropical cyclones, which are expected to intensify under ongoing global warming. Using a dynamic general equilibrium model, we analyze economic transition dynamics from 2015 to 2100, incorporating heat-induced labor productivity losses, agricultural land loss, and cyclone-related property damage. We compare a Paris-compatible scenario limiting warming to below 2 êC with a high-emission scenario reaching 4-5 êC. While output and investment impacts remain highly uncertain and statistically indistinguishable across scenarios until 2100, consumption losses are significantly larger under high emissions, mainly driven by heat-related productivity declines, with cyclones contributing most to uncertainty. These findings underscore the importance of considering multiple impact channels beyond output damages in climate-development research.
Subjects: 
climate change impacts
dynamic general equilibrium model
impact channels
mitigation
JEL: 
O44
Q13
Q54
Persistent Identifier of the first edition: 
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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