Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/325480 
Year of Publication: 
2025
Series/Report no.: 
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers No. 10/2025
Publisher: 
Bank of Finland, Helsinki
Abstract: 
This paper examines online search activity's ability to capture consumers' intentions and enhance short-term forecasting of key economic outcomes. Economic decisions such as consumption and investment are typically preceded by intentions, which, while difficult to observe directly, often manifest as online information-seeking behavior. Using a large, high-frequency dataset of search activity, we nowcast U.S. consumer confidence and private consumption, finding that legal and governmental searches are associated with shifts in consumer confidence, while real estate and news-related searches add value to forecasts of private consumption. We then extend the analysis to GDP nowcasting for selected OECD economies, assessing the predictive performance of search-based indicators across different contexts. Overall, our findings highlight the value of digital attention data as behaviorally grounded signals of consumer intentions, offering a timely complement to traditional economic indicators.
Subjects: 
nowcasting
online search behavior
consumer confidence
private consumption
GDP growth
JEL: 
E30
E32
E37
Persistent Identifier of the first edition: 
Document Type: 
Working Paper

Files in This Item:
File
Size





Items in EconStor are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.