Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/325024 
Year of Publication: 
2025
Series/Report no.: 
CESifo Working Paper No. 12033
Publisher: 
CESifo GmbH, Munich
Abstract: 
The rapid growth of international retail e-commerce has drawn scrutiny to the US de minimis rule, which exempts low-value imports from tariffs. This paper analyzes how the rule shapes the small-value e-commerce trade. We examine whether tariff increases during the 2018–2019 US–China trade war led consumers to substitute toward tariff-exempt e-commerce imports from China. Using proprietary parcel-level data from a major logistics firm, we find that a 10-percentage-point increase in tariffs raised monthly parcel volume by 3% in panel regressions and by 7% in long-difference specifications. These estimates imply that trade-war tariffs increased e-commerce imports by 5.3%–13.5%–substantial, yet modest compared to the spectacular overall ecommerce growth over 2017-2019. The response is stronger in more densely populated ZIP Codes but does not vary by income or race.
Subjects: 
trade war
de minimis rule
international e-commerce
JEL: 
F13
L81
Document Type: 
Working Paper
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