Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/325006 
Authors: 
Year of Publication: 
2025
Series/Report no.: 
CESifo Working Paper No. 12015
Publisher: 
CESifo GmbH, Munich
Abstract: 
This paper quantifies the value of timely WTO notifications for Technical Barriers to Trade (TBTs). Using French firm-level export data, I find that advance notice halves the negative impact of TBTs on export participation, by reducing temporary exits and supporting entry, particularly among small and medium-sized firms. Exploiting variation in notification delays, I show that this effect operates by reducing uncertainty about compliance costs, rather than by giving firms more time to adjust. A theoretical framework with firm heterogeneity and trade policy uncertainty formalizes this mechanism: notification lowers uncertainty, reducing firms' incentives to delay or suspend exports. The quantitative importance of this effect is equivalent to avoiding a tariff increase of up to 28 percentage points.
JEL: 
F13
F14
D84
Document Type: 
Working Paper
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