Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/324996 
Year of Publication: 
2025
Series/Report no.: 
CESifo Working Paper No. 12005
Publisher: 
CESifo GmbH, Munich
Abstract: 
We investigate the determinants of firm survival in 17 emerging European markets during the dual crises of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russo-Ukrainian war. Using a large dataset of over 59,000 firms and employing a Cox proportional hazards model, the study evaluates how firm-specific characteristics, regional socio-economic conditions, and institutional quality shaped survival outcomes between 2020 and 2023. The analysis reveals that firm exit was more prevalent in EU member states, likely due to stricter crisis-related restrictions. Socio-economic variables such as population density, tourism dependence, and health expenditures played a critical role, while institutional quality, contrary to expectations, was associated with higher exit rates during crises. The banking sector played a role in influencing firm resilience through credit provision and financial support mechanisms. The Russo-Ukrainian war further amplified survival risks, especially for firms located in countries geographically or economically exposed to the conflict. The findings offer valuable insights for designing targeted policy interventions aimed at enhancing business resilience in vulnerable and institutionally diverse environments.
Subjects: 
firm survival
banking sector
covid pandemic
Russo-Ukrainian war
Central and Eastern Europe
emerging markets
survival and exit determinants
JEL: 
C14
D02
D22
G33
Document Type: 
Working Paper
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