Bitte verwenden Sie diesen Link, um diese Publikation zu zitieren, oder auf sie als Internetquelle zu verweisen: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/324816 
Erscheinungsjahr: 
2025
Schriftenreihe/Nr.: 
IDB Working Paper Series No. IDB-WP-1719
Verlag: 
Inter-American Development Bank (IDB), Washington, DC
Zusammenfassung: 
Political crises often coincide with fiscal crises, with complex causal dynamics at play. We examine the interaction between tax revolts and sovereign risk using a quantitative structural model calibrated to Argentina. In the model, the government can be controlled by political parties with different preferences for redistribution. Households may opt to revolt in response to the fiscal decisions of the ruler. While revolts entail economic costs, they also increase the likelihood of political turnover. Our model mirrors the data by generating political crises concurrent with fiscal turmoil. Specifically, we find that our model aligns closely with the conditions observed during the Macri administration (2015-2019). We find that left-leaning parties are more prone to default upon entering office, while right-leaning parties issue more debt. Our framework explains the high deficits observed during the Macri administration as well as the sovereign default that occurred immediately after the left regained power.
Schlagwörter: 
Civil unrest
Financial crises
Sovereign default
Redistribution
JEL: 
E32
E44
F41
G01
G28
Persistent Identifier der Erstveröffentlichung: 
Creative-Commons-Lizenz: 
cc-by Logo
Dokumentart: 
Working Paper

Datei(en):
Datei
Größe
2.18 MB





Publikationen in EconStor sind urheberrechtlich geschützt.