Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/324307 
Year of Publication: 
2025
Series/Report no.: 
RF Berlin - CReAM Discussion Paper Series No. 25/25
Publisher: 
Rockwool Foundation Berlin (RF Berlin) and Centre for Research & Analysis of Migration (CReAM), Berlin and London
Abstract: 
How can crime be disrupted effectively without increasing resources? To answer this question, we develop a spatial network model of crime diffusion, using London as a case study. Moving beyond traditional hot spot policing, we identify key player neighborhoods-highly connected areas in the network. Counterfactual analysis shows that targeting top 10% of key players reduces crime by 10.7% (5.8 percentage points) more than targeting top 10% of hot spots, resulting in potential annual savings exceed- ing £130 million. Examining the underlying mechanisms, we find that while hot spots attract crime locally, key players facilitate its propagation across areas.
Subjects: 
Crime
hot spot policing
social interactions
key players
JEL: 
C23
D85
H50
K42
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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