Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/324255 
Authors: 
Year of Publication: 
2025
Series/Report no.: 
Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies Working Paper No. HEIDWP08-2025
Publisher: 
Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies, Geneva
Abstract: 
The current account (CA) balance indicates a country's savings-investment position; sustained deficits require foreign capital. To monitor Colombia's external vulnerability risk, we estimate a normative CA level using an unbalanced panel model based on long-run fundamental structural variables. The difference between the observed CA and this normative level, termed the CA gap, signals potential macroeconomic imbalances and vulnerability, often precipitating sharp adjustments. Our results emphasize Colombia's oil balance as key to explaining this gap. We identify heightened vulnerability periods: 2010-2016 and 2021-2022. Recently (2023-2024), the gap narrowed due to monetary tightening, fiscal consolidation, resilient service exports, and rising remittances. Finally, we show this framework can generate quarterly, real-time CA gap nowcasts for timely policy signals.
Subjects: 
Current account imbalance
Normative current account
Current account gap
External vulnerability
Global imbalances
JEL: 
F32
F41
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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