Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/324202 
Year of Publication: 
2025
Series/Report no.: 
MAGKS Joint Discussion Paper Series in Economics No. 14-2025
Publisher: 
Philipps-University Marburg, School of Business and Economics, Marburg
Abstract: 
By comparing the Bundesbank's BOP-HH and the ECB's CES-ECB household panel surveys focusing on inflation perceptions and expectations with omnibus surveys conducted in Germany in December 2021 and 2022, this paper examines potential sample selection bias stemming from (i) individuals' willingness to participate in a household panel, and (ii) the 'learning effect' associated with repeated survey exposure. Our findings show that focusing on newcomers to the panel does not resolve these issues, as they also exhibit selection bias and are unrepresentative of the broader population. We construct new population weights for this subgroup and identify substantial differences in opinions between inexperienced and experienced respondents during the high-inflation period of 2022. Additionally, we observe notable variation in means, medians, and variances across the three surveys for both years and inflation measures.
Subjects: 
Inflation expectations
Inflation perceptions
panel household surveys
selection bias
Germany
JEL: 
C83
D83
D84
E31
E37
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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