Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/323616 
Year of Publication: 
2022
Citation: 
[Journal:] Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization [ISSN:] 1879-1751 [Volume:] 201 [Publisher:] Elsevier [Place:] Amsterdam [Year:] 2022 [Pages:] 205-226
Publisher: 
Elsevier, Amsterdam
Abstract: 
Each person’s characteristics may influence that person’s behaviors and outcomes. This study builds and uses a new database to estimate experts’ performance and boldness based on their experience and characteristics. Our study classifies experts providing inflation forecasts based on their education, experience, gender, and environment. We provide alternative interpretations of factors affecting experts’ inflation forecasting performance, boldness, and pessimism by linking behavioral economics, the economics of education, and forecasting literature. The study finds that an expert with previous experience at a central bank appears to have a lower propensity for predicting deflation.
Subjects: 
Expert forecast
Behavioral economics
Survival analysis
Panel estimation
Global financial crisis
Survey forecast
Expert behavior
JEL: 
C53
E37
E70
C83
C81
Published Version’s DOI: 
Document Type: 
Article
Document Version: 
Accepted Manuscript (Postprint)
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