Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/323585 
Year of Publication: 
2025
Series/Report no.: 
IU Discussion Papers - Business & Management No. 7 (August 2025)
Publisher: 
IU Internationale Hochschule, Erfurt
Abstract: 
This paper compares the inter-war 1930s with the post-2014 international system to identify structural continuities that threaten contemporary stability. A tri-layer literature review integrates archival records, modern governmental datasets and global opinion surveys, normalising disparate time-series for direct cross-epoch comparison. Four recurring fault lines emerge: expansionist revisionism, democratic backsliding, intergenerational economic strain and multilateral erosion. Case comparisons-Germany-Austria 1938 vs. Russia-Crimea 2014; League of Nations budget collapse vs. today's UN funding crisis-demonstrate how weak enforcement and fiscal shortfalls embolden aggressors and extremist movements. Quantitative indicators show youth incomes 13% below parental cohorts across the OECD and UN humanitarian appeals funded at only 13%, echoing Great-Depressionera precarity and institutional paralysis. Yet divergences-nuclear deterrence, digital mobilisation and global value-chain interdependence-moderate direct analogies, constraining full-scale war while amplifying ideological contagion. Early-warning thresholds for expansionism, democratic erosion, economic discontent and multilateral under-funding are proposed to guide automatic policy responses. Recognising both historical rhymes and contemporary differences is essential to forestall a reprise of the 1930s' systemic collapse.
Subjects: 
Comparative politics
Democratic backsliding
Territorial revisionism
Multilateral institutions
Historical institutionalism
Persistent Identifier of the first edition: 
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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