Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/323354 
Year of Publication: 
2025
Citation: 
[Journal:] Economic Change and Restructuring [ISSN:] 1574-0277 [Volume:] 58 [Issue:] 3 [Article No.:] 42 [Publisher:] Springer US [Place:] New York, NY [Year:] 2025
Publisher: 
Springer US, New York, NY
Abstract: 
We study the interaction between monetary and fiscal policies in the Euro Area, in particular the effect of monetary surprise shocks on real output and the price level under different fiscal sustainability regimes. We first estimate a time-varying Bohn (Q J Econ 113:949–963, 1998) rule using the Schlicht (2003) method. Then, we use a nonlinear local projection model for the Euro Area (aggregate data), Germany, Italy, and Portugal conditional on the fiscal regimes obtained in the first step. We find that the effect of monetary shocks depends on the degree of fiscal sustainability of each country. In the case of a more Ricardian regime, output and prices respond to monetary tightening by contracting. Instead, in the less Ricardian regime, the response is insignificant or even positive. Our results show that fiscal solvency is important for the effectiveness of monetary policy. The results are robust to different specifications and models.
Subjects: 
Monetary surprises
Fiscal sustainability
Local projection models
Fiscal-monetary policy mix
Euro Area
Germany
Italy
Portugal
JEL: 
C32
E58
E62
E63
Persistent Identifier of the first edition: 
Creative Commons License: 
cc-by Logo
Document Type: 
Article
Document Version: 
Published Version

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