Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/322347 
Year of Publication: 
2025
Series/Report no.: 
Working Papers No. 2025-04
Publisher: 
Banco de México, Ciudad de México
Abstract: 
This research paper presents new gasoline demand price elasticity estimates for California. The study leverages the unique characteristics of California's gasoline market and introduces a new set of proposed instruments. As a first step, the study takes advantage of California's partially isolated gasoline market, which is separated from much of the U.S. by environmental regulations. The estimating equation controls for persistent demand shocks, leading to a lower bound for the long-run elasticity of demand of -0.23. In the second step, a new set of instruments is employed to address supply and demand simultaneity, using detailed information on refinery outages to capture short-run supply shocks. The results show that the long-run demand elasticity is -0.60.
Subjects: 
Capacity outages
Gasoline demand price elasticity
Instrumental variable estimation
California gasoline market
JEL: 
C22
C36
C51
D12
Q41
Document Type: 
Working Paper
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