Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/322249 
Year of Publication: 
2025
Series/Report no.: 
EERI Research Paper Series No. 06/2025
Publisher: 
Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels
Abstract: 
This paper examines how natural disasters shape electoral preferences by analyzing the impact of earthquakes in Italy between 1990 and 2019. Using a staggered Difference-in-Differences design, we estimate that affected municipalities are more likely to elect female, more educated, and older city councilors. Similar shifts occur for mayors. These effects persist across election cycles and are robust to alternative specifications. We rule out competing explanations such as changes in turnout or candidate supply. The findings suggest that crises push voters to favor politicians perceived as more competent, experienced, and prosocial.
Subjects: 
Natural disasters
Electoral behavior
Local elections
Political selection
Gender and representation
Earthquakes
Difference-in-Differences
Voter preferences
JEL: 
D72
H84
J16
C23
O15
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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