Publisher:
University of Copenhagen, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Behavior and Inequality (CEBI), Copenhagen
Abstract:
Models of female labor supply routinely assume that women have accurate expectations about post-birth employment, but little is known about whether this assumption holds. We use a 2019 state-contingent survey of 11,000 Danish women linked to administrative data to compare pre-birth beliefs to realized outcomes. Mothers accurately anticipate long-run return to work but systematically overestimate how soon it will occur. Miscalibration stems from two belief errors-about partner leave and own labor supply-which interact and persist even among second-time mothers.