Discussion paper series // Zentrum für Finanzen und Ökonometrie, Universität Konstanz 2005,10
As a group, market forecasters are egregiously overconfident. In conformity to the dynamic model of overconfidence of Gervais and Odean (2001), successful forecasters have become more overconfident. What's more, more experienced forecasters have learned to be overconfident, and hence are more susceptible to this behavioral flaw than their less experienced peers . It is not just individuals who are affected. Markets also become more overconfident when market returns have been high.