Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/320124 
Year of Publication: 
2025
Series/Report no.: 
CESifo Working Paper No. 11903
Publisher: 
CESifo GmbH, Munich
Abstract: 
We study the effects of the largest adverse health shock in modern medicine - the 1918 influenza pandemic - on subsequent shifts in health-related attitudes and behavior and future-oriented policies. Our analysis builds upon self-digitized, individual-level death-register excerpts, vaccination records, and popular vote counts. We find that greater exposure to influenza leads to a decline in societal support for public health measures at the aggregate level, mainly triggered by deceased peers. However, individual-level data reveal increased vaccination rates in families who experienced influenza-related deaths. These differences did not exist before the pandemic. Our findings link to a U-shaped relationship between suffering from the pandemic and support for effective health policies. Places with predominantly indirectly-affected families drive the aggregate backlash. This challenges the idea that past health shocks improve life expectancy through societal learning.
Subjects: 
health behavior
health attitudes
1918 influenza pandemic
mistrust
JEL: 
I12
I18
H51
D72
N34
Document Type: 
Working Paper
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