Bitte verwenden Sie diesen Link, um diese Publikation zu zitieren, oder auf sie als Internetquelle zu verweisen: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/320111 
Erscheinungsjahr: 
2025
Schriftenreihe/Nr.: 
CESifo Working Paper No. 11890
Verlag: 
CESifo GmbH, Munich
Zusammenfassung: 
On April 2, 2025, President Trump declared "Liberation Day", announcing broad tariffs to reduce trade deficits and revive U.S. industry. We analyze the long-term economic impacts of these tariffs through the lens of a trade model that features flexible tariff passthrough and endogenous trade deficits, calibrated to trade and income data from 194 countries. If trading partners do not retaliate, the tariffs could decrease the U.S. trade deficit and improve its terms of trade, yielding modest welfare gains when tariff revenues reduce the income tax burden for American workers. However, reciprocal retaliation results in net welfare losses for the U.S. economy. We derive the unilaterally optimal tariff within our model and show that the USTR tariffs, based on bilateral deficits, differ markedly from this theoretical benchmark. Our calibrated model implies a unilaterally optimal tariff for the U.S. of 19 percent, uniformly applied across all trading partners, and linked to the overall trade deficit rather than bilateral imbalances. Under optimal foreign retaliation to the USTR tariffs, the calibrated model predicts a decline in U.S. welfare by up to 3.8 percent when accounting for input-output linkages, and a contraction in global employment by 1.1 percent.
Schlagwörter: 
tariff
tariff war
deficit
welfare
trade
Trump
Liberation Day
China
JEL: 
F1
Dokumentart: 
Working Paper
Erscheint in der Sammlung:

Datei(en):
Datei
Größe





Publikationen in EconStor sind urheberrechtlich geschützt.