Bitte verwenden Sie diesen Link, um diese Publikation zu zitieren, oder auf sie als Internetquelle zu verweisen: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/319911 
Erscheinungsjahr: 
2025
Schriftenreihe/Nr.: 
IWH Discussion Papers No. 8/2025
Verlag: 
Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), Halle (Saale)
Zusammenfassung: 
We investigate how global banks' macroeconomic expectations for borrower countries influence their credit supply. Utilizing granular data on varying expectations among banks lending to the same firm at the same time, combined with an instrumental variable approach, we find that more optimistic GDP growth expectations for a borrower country are strongly linked to increased credit supply. Specifically, a one standard deviation increase in a lender's GDP growth expectation for the borrower's country corresponds to an increase of 8.46 percentage points in the loan share, equivalent to approximately 0.75 standard deviations of the loan share and $75.35 million in loan amount. In contrast, global banks' short-term inflation expectations do not show a significant impact on their credit supply.
Schlagwörter: 
asymmetric information
credit supply
expectation
global banks
JEL: 
E32
F34
Persistent Identifier der Erstveröffentlichung: 
Dokumentart: 
Working Paper

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