Bitte verwenden Sie diesen Link, um diese Publikation zu zitieren, oder auf sie als Internetquelle zu verweisen: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/319647 
Erscheinungsjahr: 
2025
Schriftenreihe/Nr.: 
Arbeitspapier No. 01/2025
Verlag: 
Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der Gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung, Wiesbaden
Zusammenfassung: 
Germany is undergoing a major shift in fiscal policy. In response to recent crises and long-term structural challenges, the federal government has introduced a debt-financed spending package that marks a significant departure from past fiscal orthodoxy. This paper investigates the macroeconomic implications of Germany's new fiscal consensus, focusing on how the composition of spending-investment versus consumption-affects inflation, growth, and debt sustainability. Using structural vector autoregressions, we estimate fiscal multipliers across key expenditure types and apply them in a scenario analysis. We focus on three scenarios in which policy makers focus either on consumption, constrained consumption or investment. Our results show that an investment-oriented strategy, particularly those targeting infrastructure and R&D, yields stronger and more sustained GDP growth with more favorable long-term debt outcomes than consumption-oriented approaches. These findings highlight the importance of fiscal quality over quantity. They suggest that strategic allocation of fiscal resources is essential for achieving long-term economic resilience and fiscal sustainability, offering important lessons for Germany and the broader EU as fiscal rules evolve.
Schlagwörter: 
fiscal package
debt
output
Germany
JEL: 
E22
E60
E62
Dokumentart: 
Working Paper

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