Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/319207 
Year of Publication: 
2025
Series/Report no.: 
CESifo Working Paper No. 11839
Publisher: 
CESifo GmbH, Munich
Abstract: 
We examine the indirect effects of the US-China trade war on Brazil’s labor market. Using industry-specific tariff changes and the sectoral employment distribution across local labor markets, we construct a measure of regional exposure to the trade conflict. Following higher exports to China, our findings reveal that regions more exposed to Chinese retaliatory tariffs on US exports experienced a relative increase in formal employment and wage bills. In contrast, American tariffs on Chinese exports had no significant impact on Brazilian labor markets. These results contribute to a better understanding of the intricate worldwide implications of bilateral trade wars.
Subjects: 
trade war
trade diversion
local labor markets
Brazil.
JEL: 
D31
F14
F16
F66
J23
Document Type: 
Working Paper
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