Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/319151 
Year of Publication: 
2025
Series/Report no.: 
IZA Discussion Papers No. 17882
Publisher: 
Institute of Labor Economics (IZA), Bonn
Abstract: 
How do firms' plans and expectations respond to macroeconomic shocks? We run a daily survey of German firms over the past three years. We randomize daily invitations, delivering a stable composition of firms. This allows constructing daily time series and estimating dynamic aggregate causal effects. These estimates capture firms' responsiveness conditional on the recent economic environment, making them informative for policymakers. We examine oil supply, monetary policy, and forward guidance shocks, finding that firms' plans, especially price-setting plans, respond within days to oil supply and monetary policy shocks but not to forward guidance. Finally, we investigate firm heterogeneity and expectations.
Subjects: 
oil supply
monetary policy
firms
daily data
inflation surge
JEL: 
E31
E43
E52
E58
C83
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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