Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/318619 
Year of Publication: 
2025
Citation: 
[Journal:] International Economics and Economic Policy [ISSN:] 1612-4812 [Volume:] 22 [Issue:] 1 [Article No.:] 25 [Publisher:] Springer [Place:] Berlin, Heidelberg [Year:] 2025
Publisher: 
Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg
Abstract: 
This paper estimates a three-region macroeconomic model to analyse the key drivers of Germany's GDP, inflation, and wage growth during the COVID-19 pandemic and inflation surge. Incorporating COVID-related demand and supply shocks, trade in commodities, and endogenous ELB periods, the results highlight that (i) the 2020–2021 downturn was primarily driven by domestic and global lockdown shocks, (ii) the 2021–2022 inflation surge resulted from rising commodity prices, recovering global demand, and supply-side pressures, and (iii) wage growth per hour was shaped by opposing demand and supply forces. The model's estimated shocks closely align with external indicators, supporting its empirical plausibility.
Subjects: 
COVID-19
Inflation
Open-economy DSGE model
Bayesian estimation
Germany
JEL: 
C51
E32
E52
F41
F45
Persistent Identifier of the first edition: 
Creative Commons License: 
cc-by Logo
Document Type: 
Article
Document Version: 
Published Version

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