Zusammenfassung:
Wars fueled by resource wealth pose complex challenges for conflict resolution. I combine data on conflict events, rebel resource dependence, world market prices, and ceasefire details to investigate how fluctuations in rebel funding affect the likelihood of ceasefires. Increased funding opportunities strengthen the rebel position and decrease the bargaining range between belligerents. Higher resource rents prolong the conflict and make resolution less likely. Using the exogenous variation of world market prices, I find that rebels react strongly to changes in their budget situation. Price increases reduce the likelihood of rebels entering ceasefires connected to conflict resolution.