Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/318487 
Year of Publication: 
2025
Series/Report no.: 
Working Papers in Economics and Statistics No. 2025-04
Publisher: 
University of Innsbruck, Research Platform Empirical and Experimental Economics (eeecon), Innsbruck
Abstract: 
Wars fueled by resource wealth pose complex challenges for conflict resolution. I combine data on conflict events, rebel resource dependence, world market prices, and ceasefire details to investigate how fluctuations in rebel funding affect the likelihood of ceasefires. Increased funding opportunities strengthen the rebel position and decrease the bargaining range between belligerents. Higher resource rents prolong the conflict and make resolution less likely. Using the exogenous variation of world market prices, I find that rebels react strongly to changes in their budget situation. Price increases reduce the likelihood of rebels entering ceasefires connected to conflict resolution.
Subjects: 
ceasefires
civil conflict
natural resources
conflict resolution
JEL: 
D74
L70
O13
Q34
F51
F52
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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