Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/318431 
Year of Publication: 
2025
Series/Report no.: 
KOF Working Papers No. 523
Publisher: 
ETH Zurich, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, Zurich
Abstract: 
We extend a quantitative general equilibrium model of global trade networks to evaluate the economic impacts of various trade disruptions. Our analysis considers scenarios such as US-China trade wars, a broader Cold War 2.0 decoupling, Trump-era tariffs, and disruptions in the trade of critical inputs. We assess effects across 34 countries/regions and 38 industries, with a particular focus on Switzerland and its key sectors. We also account for second-layer effects, which can mitigate but, in most cases, amplify or considerably amplify the impacts predicted by our model. By highlighting both vulnerabilities and opportunities within the Swiss economy, we provide insights into the level of resilience of a small open economy to geopolitical shocks.
Subjects: 
Global trade networks
Trump tariffs
Swiss economy
JEL: 
C67
D57
F17
F41
F51
Persistent Identifier of the first edition: 
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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