Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/318192 
Year of Publication: 
2025
Series/Report no.: 
BOFIT Discussion Papers No. 4/2025
Publisher: 
Bank of Finland, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT), Helsinki
Abstract: 
Following Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the US, EU, and likeminded countries swiftly imposed an expanded set of primary and secondary export restrictions on Russia. This paper assesses the effectiveness of those measures and their ongoing refinement and modification over time using a calibrated three-country dynamic general equilibrium trade model with heterogeneous firm productivities. The modeling set-up comprises a rich specification of export ban loopholes and workarounds, as well as subsequent countermeasures such as re-exports, ghost trade, and secondary extraterritorial export bans. The numerical model evaluations and the numerous policy counterfactuals highlight the challenges of export ban evasion and offer insights for effective export ban designs in the future. We show that targeted secondary extraterritorial export bans have proven an impactful policy tool in diminishing Russia's imports of critical technologies.
Subjects: 
Russia
export bans
sanctions evasion
quantitative trade model
JEL: 
F12
F13
F51
H56
Persistent Identifier of the first edition: 
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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