Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/317789 
Authors: 
Year of Publication: 
2025
Series/Report no.: 
BOFIT Policy Brief No. 9/2025
Publisher: 
Bank of Finland, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT), Helsinki
Abstract: 
We consider the applicability of simple statistical models to Russia's short-term economic trends in a wartime context. We develop several composite indicators combining economic variables to predict Russian GDP trends both before and after the invasion if Ukraine in 2022. In addition, our SVAR model estimations highlight the exceptionality of wartime. Russia's actual GDP performance in 2022 is considerably weaker than predicted by our model. The situation then reverses in 2023 and particularly at end-2024 the GDP outperforms model predictions.
Subjects: 
Russian economy
statistics
principal component analysis
SVAR
Persistent Identifier of the first edition: 
Document Type: 
Research Report

Files in This Item:
File
Size





Items in EconStor are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.