Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/317623 
Year of Publication: 
2023
Citation: 
[Journal:] Journal of Business Economics and Management (JBEM) [ISSN:] 2029-4433 [Volume:] 24 [Issue:] 2 [Year:] 2023 [Pages:] 245-273
Publisher: 
Vilnius Gediminas Technical University, Vilnius
Abstract: 
This study offers an in-depth analysis of labour productivity of manufacturing sector in Turkey and provides a comparison with EU27 and EA19 countries utilizing Eurostat time series data of 63 quarters covering 2005/first quarter-2020/third quarter time interval. Productivity trends are identified and interpreted by relating them with the key macroeconomic events and factors. Multiple linear and non-linear regression equations, and ARIMA model with different parameters are applied to the time series data considering the periods with and without covid effect. Future projections are made for the periods 2020-2023 for Turkey manufacturing sector based on the best fitting regression and ARIMA solutions and they are compared. Findings revealed that extreme covid conditions of even two quarters of data have significant impact on the forecasted values for Turkey, EU27 and EA19 countries. ARIMA analysis with 12 different parameter settings provided accurate results, supported by Thiel's inequality coefficients and standard error measures. Analysis has shown consistent patterns between EA19 and EU27 countries. ARIMA results represent better compatibility with the regression results for Turkey. Study is valuable by providing comprehensive and comparative analysis, revealing future forecasts and covid effect and degree of recovery from the pandemic.
Subjects: 
ARIMA
EU
labour productivity
linear regression
manufacturing
Turkey
JEL: 
D24
C22
J24
L6
Persistent Identifier of the first edition: 
Creative Commons License: 
cc-by Logo
Document Type: 
Article

Files in This Item:
File
Size





Items in EconStor are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.