Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/317367 
Year of Publication: 
2019
Citation: 
[Journal:] Journal of Business Economics and Management (JBEM) [ISSN:] 2029-4433 [Volume:] 20 [Issue:] 6 [Year:] 2019 [Pages:] 1083-1101
Publisher: 
Vilnius Gediminas Technical University, Vilnius
Abstract: 
As the world's largest importer, trading of iron ore occupies a pivotal position in China's international trade. In order to seek the decision power of deciding the price for iron ore, China's Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) listed iron ore futures in October 2013,which has become the world's largest iron ore financial derivatives trading market now. Based on VECM and state-space perspective, this paper aims to explore the price discovery function of iron ore futures on the DCE. Comprehensive analysis from the views of long-term equilibrium relationship, short-term information shocks and dynamic contribution share are made in this paper. The empirical results show that: firstly, from the perspective of cointegration test, there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between the futures prices in DCE and the spot prices; secondly, when facing with short-term information shocks, iron ore futures in DCE have an obviously price discovery function by the analysis of impulse response and variance decomposition; finally, by the way of state-space and Kalman filter algorithm, the long-term equilibrium relationship dynamic contribution for price discovery function of DCE's iron ore futures remains stable between 60% and 70% now.
Subjects: 
Price discovery
Iron ore futures
VECM
State-space model
Kalman filter
Dalian Commodity Exchange
JEL: 
G13
G14
G15
Persistent Identifier of the first edition: 
Creative Commons License: 
cc-by Logo
Document Type: 
Article

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