Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/31727
Authors: 
Bell, Clive
Koukoumelis, Anastasios
Year of Publication: 
2009
Series/Report no.: 
Jena economic research papers 2009,036
Abstract: 
An AIDS epidemic threatens Ethiopia with a long wave of premature adult mortality, and thus with an enduring setback to capital formation and economic growth. The authors develop a two-sector model with three overlapping generations and intersectorally mobile labor, in which young adults allocate resources under rational expectations. They calibrate the model to the demographic and economic data, and perform simulations for the period ending in 2100 under alternative assumptions about mortality with and without the epidemic. Although the epidemic does not bring about a catastrophic economic collapse, which is hardly possible in view of Ethiopia's poverty and high background adult mortality, it does cause a permanent, downward displacement of the path of output per head, amounting to 10 percent in 2100. An externally funded program to combat the disease is socially very profitable.
Subjects: 
HIV/AIDS
Growth
Dualism
Ethiopia
JEL: 
I10
I20
O11
O41
Document Type: 
Working Paper

Files in This Item:
File
Size
757.01 kB





Items in EconStor are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.