Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/316878 
Year of Publication: 
2025
Series/Report no.: 
CESifo Working Paper No. 11764
Publisher: 
CESifo GmbH, Munich
Abstract: 
This note provides extensive evidence on the persistence properties of real GDP in 17 European countries and in the US over the period 1960-2023 using a fractional integration framework. The analysis suggests that in all cases shocks have permanent effects on the level of real GDP. This is consistent with the idea that it is the growth rate of output which is stationary and fluctuates around a long-run equilibrium level. Further, the degree of persistence varies across countries, with the US, Greece and Spain exhibiting the highest one and Sweden and Ireland the lowest. Policy makers should take such properties into account when formulating appropriate stabilisation policies.
Subjects: 
real GDP
time series
persistence
fractional integration.
JEL: 
C22
E23
Document Type: 
Working Paper
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