Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/316869 
Year of Publication: 
2025
Series/Report no.: 
CESifo Working Paper No. 11755
Publisher: 
CESifo GmbH, Munich
Abstract: 
We show how tax kinks can be used to estimate the marginal propensity to consume (MPC). Tax kinks create discrete changes in the relationship between taxable income and disposable income, which – under a set of testable assumptions – enables causal identification of the spending response to changes in disposable income. We apply our new approach using administrative data from Denmark. Using a regression kink design (RKD), we estimate a MPC of 0.6 (s.e. 0.1) for taxpayers at the top tax kink. We show theoretically the conditions under which tax kinks provide variation in transitory or permanent income and deduce that the RKD exploits predominately transitory variation in income. Our implementation addresses threats to the research design from manipulation of taxable income through labor supply and other behavioral responses. Our findings inform the targeting of fiscal stimulus and social insurance programs to high income earners.
Subjects: 
marginal propensity to consume
tax kinks
regression kink designs
JEL: 
E21
H24
Document Type: 
Working Paper
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