Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/316857 
Year of Publication: 
2025
Series/Report no.: 
CESifo Working Paper No. 11743
Publisher: 
CESifo GmbH, Munich
Abstract: 
The Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 led to unprecedented sanctions aimed at denying Russia access to critical technologies essential for sustaining its war efforts. This paper examines whether trade sanctions targeting military goods were undermined by evasion, specifically through transshipment through Russia-friendly countries. We find that Russia-friendly countries are 20 pp more likely to export military goods to Russia relative to neutral countries after the war began, while exports of military goods from Western allies to these countries also increased. Our results show that weak enforcement significantly undermines the effectiveness of sanctions.
Subjects: 
trade sanctions
sanction evasion
military goods trade
JEL: 
F14
F51
K42
Document Type: 
Working Paper
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