Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/316628 
Authors: 
Year of Publication: 
2024
Citation: 
[Journal:] East Asian Economic Review (EAER) [ISSN:] 2508-1667 [Volume:] 28 [Issue:] 1 [Year:] 2024 [Pages:] 95-140
Publisher: 
Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP), Sejong-si
Abstract: 
This study empirically investigates the international transmission of China's uncertainty shocks. It estimates a time-varying parameter Bayesian global structural vector autoregressive model (TVP-BGVAR) using time series data for 33 countries to evaluate heterogeneous international linkage across countries and time. Uncertainty shocks are identified via sign restrictions. The empirical results reveal that an increase in uncertainty in China negatively affects the global economy, but those effects significantly vary over time. The effects of China's uncertainty shocks on the global economy have been significantly altered by China's WTO accession, the global financial crisis, and the recent US–China trade conflict. Furthermore, the effects of China's uncertainty shocks, typically on inflation, differ significantly across countries. Moreover, Trade openness appears crucial in explaining heterogeneous GDP responses across countries, whereas the international dimension of monetary policy appears to be important in explaining heterogeneous inflation responses across countries.
Subjects: 
Uncertainty
International Transmission
Time-varying Parameter
Bayesian Global VAR
China
JEL: 
C32
E32
F41
Persistent Identifier of the first edition: 
Creative Commons License: 
cc-by Logo
Document Type: 
Article

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