Bitte verwenden Sie diesen Link, um diese Publikation zu zitieren, oder auf sie als Internetquelle zu verweisen: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/315185 
Erscheinungsjahr: 
2024
Quellenangabe: 
[Journal:] AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis [ISSN:] 1863-818X [Volume:] 108 [Issue:] 2 [Publisher:] Springer [Place:] Berlin, Heidelberg [Year:] 2024 [Pages:] 461-476
Verlag: 
Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg
Zusammenfassung: 
Decision trees constitute a simple yet powerful and interpretable machine learning tool. While tree-based methods are designed only for cross-sectional data, we propose an approach that combines decision trees with time series modeling and thereby bridges the gap between machine learning and statistics. In particular, we combine decision trees with hidden Markov models where, for any time point, an underlying (hidden) Markov chain selects the tree that generates the corresponding observation. We propose an estimation approach that is based on the expectation-maximisation algorithm and assess its feasibility in simulation experiments. In our real-data application, we use eight seasons of National Football League (NFL) data to predict play calls conditional on covariates, such as the current quarter and the score, where the model’s states can be linked to the teams’ strategies. R code that implements the proposed method is available on GitHub.
Schlagwörter: 
Decision trees
EM algorithm
Hidden Markov models
Time series modeling
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